While it was still imaginable to see Alexander Zverev in the final, Karen Khachanov reaching the final match came as a surprise, even in Russia.
Still, the match Karen Khachanov vs Alexander Zverev will take place on Saturday, 1 August 2021, and will start at 07:00 a.m. GMT at the Ariake Tennis Park, Tokyo, Japan. You may find Karen Khachanov vs Alexander Zverev (August 1) prediction and betting tips below.
Khachanov vs Zverev (August 1) latest odds on betting sites
Expectedly, the German tennis player is the favorite to win this final after his triumph over the world no 1, Novak Djokovich. Zverev to win the gold is priced with the odds of 1.35 (-265 American; 7/20 Fractional), which equals an approximate probability of 74%. Russian tennis player to win the men’s final is priced at 3.60 (+260; 13/5). Chances are around 26%.
Over/Under games total:
- Over 22.5 games — 2.00 (+100; evens)
- Under 22.5 games — 1.90 (-111; 9/10)
Over/Under sets total:
- Over 2.5 sets — 2.60 (+160; 8/5)
- Under 2.5 sets — 1.50 (-200; 1/2)
- Karen Khachanov (+3.5) — 1.85 (-118; 17/20)
- Alexander Zverev (-3.5) — 2.10 (+110; 11/10)
Khachanov vs Zverev (August 1) match preview and stats
Karen Khachanov was the favorite in all of his matches at the Olympics, with the exception of the semi-finals. His rivals were Yoshihito Nishioka (3-6, 6-1, 6-2), James Duckvort (7-5, 6-1), Diego Shwartzman (6-1, 2-6, 6-1), Ugo Wember (7-6, 4-6, 6-3) and Pablo Carreno-Busta (6-3, 6-3).
Karen has not been successful at the tournaments this year, so this will be his first 2021 final
Khachanov met Alexander Zverev 4 times, and 2 of them finished 2-0 in favour of the Russian tennis player. These wins pleasantly surprised by Karen’s play on return games. He improved his conversion of break points to the level of 45%, whereas his all-time result is equal to 39%. Also, he increased the return games win rate by 15%.
We have seen a total of over 2.5 sets in 6 of Khachanov’s last 7 fixtures. A total of 2.5 sets in the final is priced with the odds of 2.60 (+160; 8/5).
Alexander Zverev beat all of his opponents 2-0 apart from Novak Djokovic. His results at the 2021 Olympics are as follows: Lu Jansun (6-1, 6-3), Daniel Elahi Galan Riveros (6-2, 6-2), Nikoloz Basilashvili (6-4, 7-6), Jeremy Chardy (6-4, 6-1) and Novak Djokovic (1-6, 6-3, 6-1). This will be Zverev’s second final this year/ The first was at the ATP Madrid, which he won.
Despite the German tennis player being the favorite of the 2021 Olympics men’s final, Karen should prove to be a very uncomfortable opponent for him. The only good ratio for Alexander Zverev in his head-to-head games against Khachanov is the first serve. All other stats like return and service games win rate, conversion and saving break points — dropped by 6-9%.
Zverev has won 4 of his last 5 fixtures with a 2-0 score. This outcome in the final is priced with the odds of 1.92 (-109; 23/25).
Khachanov vs Zverev (August 1) betting tips and prediction
Sure, the German tennis player is the favorite, but there are several reasons why I come to the conclusion that Karen should win this match.
Firstly, Zverev's opponents, except for Novak Djokovic, were rather weak, while the Russian tennis player performed against 3 top-seeded athletes. Secondly, the statistics of personal matches are disappointing for Alexander. He showed the game which was far from the best against this opponent, while Khachanov improved his performance.
Based on this, I conclude that the game will be played in 3 sets and with a total over 22.5 games, with Karen winning in a hard match.
Betting prediction: Karen Khachanov to win
Odds: 3.60 (+260 American; 13/5 Fractional)
Betting prediction: Over 2.5 sets
Odds: 2.60 (+160 American; 8/5 Fractional)
Betting prediction: Over 22.5 games
Odds: 2.00 (+100 American; evens)