AlphaSportsBetting has partnered up with BETEGY, the digital sports data technology company, to provide soccer sports data analysis during the World Cup 2018 in Russia.
World Cup 2018 is the most significant football event of the year, known for the most exceptional social engagement.
The competition saw 32 teams participating, and 64 matches played within a one-month period.
The best football prediction algorithm
BETEGY algorithm is an automated, self-learning system that predicts outcomes of football games with high accuracy.
It crunches tons of numbers and applies advanced statistical analysis (Poisson distributions, Dixon and Coles model, Dixon and Robinson model) on a scale, which is not achievable by a human.
As a result, it generates the most accurate predictions.
FIFA World Cup 2018 Predictions
To generate predictions for tournaments BETEGY uses a modified version of their standard algorithm.
Group Stage Predictions
The BETEGY system generates probability for each team to win the group and probability for each team to qualify for the next stage of the competition (playoffs). Analysis consists of two main parts:
• Calculation of Team Index – for each team, the system calculates the Index.
It is a number, which describes the current strength of a team in the context of particular tournament.
Index is adjusted according to factors that have additional influence on team’s performance such as stability (consistency of team’s results), players and squad (assessment of each player individually and team squad as one unit) or coach (experience and results in international tournaments).
• Simulation of Matches – simulation of all games in each group.
Eventually, we have predictions for every game and, therefore, final points for each team.
These points will be combined with the Index to get final probabilities to win the group and to qualify to the playoff.
FIFA World Cup 2018 Predicted Winner
Next step, knowing the results in each group, is the simulation of the playoff stage.
In this part BETEGY’s algorithm additionally takes into consideration past tournament performance and burnout rate for each team.
This allows the model to simulate different possible results for each of playoff rounds and sum up to final probabilities.
Who is going to win the World Cup 2018?
All probabilities are updated after each round of the tournament and the latest predictions for this world cup see Brazil as favourites to win their sixth World Cup Final at 22% followed by France at 18% and Belgium at 16%.
BETEGY’s high prediction success sate
During World Cup 2014, BETEGY correctly predicted the winner of the tournament and all four teams in semifinals before the final part started.
With the FIFA World Cup 2018, BETEGY focuses more on individual factors related to players than on teams as a whole.
Therefore, expected forecasts accuracy should be even higher.
Since the beginning of the World Cup, ALPHA Sports Betting had over 70% success rate with the predictions provided by BETEGY.
BETEGy’s accurate predictions were also recorded during the EURO 2016 tournament.
The BETEGY algorithm model managed to beat other models, famous pundits and people to finish on top of the rankings.
AlphaiGaming Twitter Bot
In collaboration with BETEGY AlphaSportsbetting have also developed a twitter bot to quickly provide our users a set of statistical data in a nice infographic.
Depending on key words and hashtags used, our Alphigaming Twitter Bot can reply with a set of predictions and statistical data.
To make the service even quicker and more direct, you can get predictions directly to your Twitter account by tagging @AlphaiGaming in your message and ask for a specific prediction, e.g.
‘England score @AlphaiGaming’. The reply should be visible on your Twitter feed within a few minutes.
Users can retweet and start a conversation with followers. Tweets appear in hashtag feeds of teams and games automatically.