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Kentucky Derby 2018 (Predictions & A Guide To Getting Started)

March 30, 2018 9 min to read

The Kentucky Derby has been one of the top Grade 1 Stakes races for ages now and horse racing fans have been eager to watch the event and get tickets even from now when the actual race will take place on the 5th of May later this year.

Betting odds have already been offered by multiple bookmakers and in today’s article, we are going to analyze some of the best ones.

We will see how the Kentucky Derby 2018 could unravel and how is each of the horses participating (probably) going to perform?

Based on a big array of statistics and other information we will finally provide you with our prediction regarding the top 5 finishing positions.

In the meantime, here are some horse betting strategies you can catch up on>>

In This Article:

Kentucky Derby 2018

What Is The Kentucky Derby?

This particular race has been around ever since 1875 and is one of the oldest and most esteemed horse racing events being held in the United States of America. The surface of the track is dirt while the length originally started being 1½ miles while for many decades now it has been 1¼ miles instead.

The horses participating must be of at least 3 years of age.

Colds and geldings can carry 126 pounds while fillies are allowed to carry only 121 pounds.

The race takes place at Churchill Downs which is located in Louisville, Kentucky.

The track is left-handed and the purse is $2m, while the first place takes about $1.425 million of that.

The event takes place on the first Saturday of May and just like previously mentioned the Kentucky Derby 2018 will be held on the 5th of May.

Horse Analysis

There are 20 available positions in the race.

One of those is normally reserved to the winning horse of the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby.

If for some reason the participant declined to run in the race then his position is awarded to the next ranked Japanese horse.

If none of the top 4 horses accepts the invitation then the place will be determined by the regular Road to the Kentucky Derby.

A similar process started applying this year for the European Road to the Kentucky Derby.

So there is a possibility for all the horses participating coming from the US.

Technically though, there are 24 positions for the horses to claim, the last 4 being there just in case one of the 20 horses in the event can’t take place unless the betting phase has already started.

In that case, it is impossible for any of the 4 reserve horses to claim a starting position in the event.

Now that we have cleared this out, let’s take a look at some of the top contestants.

kentucky derby 2018 winner

1. Bolt d’Oro

This horse is currently in the top of the rankings having accumulated a total of 64 points and $780,000 in non-restricted stakes winnings.

Of the total 5 races, it has participated in it won the Grade 2 race and two of the three Grade 1 races while it finished 3rd in the remaining one.

It also got another 1st place in the MSW race. Since it is very early the betting odds offered on all the horses are slightly increased.

That being said, at the time of this article being written, Bolt d’Oro is offered an 8.00 odd from Bovada.

If we had to give a prediction we would say that this horse is indeed going to finish in the first position in the race.

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2. Audible

The 3-year-old colt has already run in 4 races but unfortunately, as we found out none of those races was of the same length as the Kentucky Derby track.

Although, the horse managed to get the first place from all the races instead of an MSW one where it finished in the 3rd position.

What is really interesting however is that none of those races was of the first Grade.

Audible is somewhat of a surprise taking into consideration the horse’s significantly low ranking compared to some of its competitors in the race.

It only has 10 points and about $210,000 in race earnings. Bovada offers Audible a 9.00 odd!

We don’t think it is going to perform well keeping into consideration that most of its opponents unlike Audible will have at least some experience in Grade 1 races.

3. McKinzie

This horse is coming to the race with 3 wins on its record. Analytically, a win in both a Grade 1 and a Grade 3 race and another one in an MSW race.

The last track he participated in was the San Felipe Stakes (Grade 2) where it finished in the second place right behind Bolt d’Oro.

According to its ranking of 40 points and more than $320,000 race earnings, we do believe that McKinzie could be one of the best horses in the upcoming race and as everything suggests most of the bookmakers seem to agree with us.

Specifically, Bovada offers the horse an 11.00 odd.

4. Justify

Being probably one of the horses in the race with the least experience, Justify has taken part in only two races neither one of them being of the first Grade.

That being said, it has won both those races and that will most likely grant him a place in one of the starting positions in the Kentucky Derby 2018.

Bovada has assigned it with a slightly higher odd of 13.00!

Thinking that this particular horse doesn’t have much experience overall and none in Grade 1 races we don’t think that it will be able to contend one of the top 3 places let alone the 1st position.

5. Good Magic

Being one of our top favourites, Good Magic has already run in 4 races and always got good positions. In fact, it came second in a MSW and a Grade 1 race, won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Grade 1 race and finished 3rd in another Grade 2 race.

That being said, the horse currently has a 34 points ranking and has won more money than any of its competitors, more than $1.2 million to be precise.

Bovada offers a 15.00 odd.

We would say that betting on this particular horse is a good decision as it has already proved it can do well in top-class races.

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kentucky derby 2018 guide

6. Solomini

Bob Baffert, the same person training McKinzie has taken this horse under his wing as well but how has Solomini been performing so far?

The answer is “Great!” as the horse has proved to be a strong competitor in Grade 1 races. Even though it has only won an MSW race it has also finished second in two Grade 1 and a Grade 2 race while it has another 3rd position finish in the third Grade 1 race it participated in.

Having 34 ranking points and more than $615,000 in race winnings the horse is very likely to get a starting position in the Kentucky Derby 2018.

Bovada has assigned it to a 17.00 odd instead!

We do believe Solomini has a good chance of being in the top two places.

7. Gold Town

Being one of the few British horses that could get a place in the Kentucky Derby starting lineup we have to say that Gold Town could do such a thing with relative ease.

In fact, the horse has already a lot of experience performing in top-class races.

It has won 4 out of its total 8 races, the last three being wins as well.

Here comes the question though. ..could this horse perform well in an American Grade 1 race?

The answer is “Yes”, it sure could.

In fact, we may even place some money on it just in case it wins even if that sounds a bit far-fetched.

Bovada offers Gold Town a 17.00 odd, we predict a place in the top 5 though.

8. Promises Fulfilled

Could we be looking at a possible winner? Very likely. This horse is currently ranked 4th in the US has accumulated 52 points and more than $255,000 in race winnings.

It has won 3 out of the total 4 races it has participated in and its chances of getting a spot in the Kentucky Derby are very high to say the least.

Bovada may offer the horse a very high 17.00 odd.

Both ones are significantly high emitting the vibe that this horse isn’t likely to do well but we tend to disagree and as time has shown we are usually right when doing so.

In our opinion, it could land a position in the top 3 places.

9. Enticed

The second highest ranking horse currently in the US.

Enticed has a total of 63 points were just one point behind Bolt d’Oro who has 64. As for race winnings, it stands at about $360,000 which may appear low at first but doesn’t let numbers fool you.

This horse is no joke.

It has its fair share of experience having run in 5 races so far and it is very probably to see it run in the Kentucky Derby as well.

Just like many of the other possible participants, it hasn’t got a Grade 1 race win yet but that isn’t something we aren’t used to witnessing.

Bovada offers it a 17.00 odd.

Personally, we wouldn’t place this horse in one of the top 5 positions.

10. Magnum Moon

Another good horse in the US ranking, Magnum Moon is currently placed 5th in America having 50 points to its name and approximately $540,000 in race winnings.

Having run only 3 races it has won all of them.

It could run in the Arkansas Derby (Grade 1) race and after that, it is very likely that we will see it running in the Kentucky Derby as well.

Bovada offers Magnum Moon a 17.00 odd.

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Our Prediction

Here are our top five places:

  1. Bolt d’Oro
  2. Solomini
  3. Promises Fulfilled
  4. Good Magic
  5. McKenzie
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Conclusion

Betting on horse races can be an extremely difficult way to make money.

The good thing is that with the lowest odd being 8.00 you could easily apply these horse betting tips to distribute your budget to the top 5 choices so that no matter which one of them ends up winning you will have a profit no matter what, provided of course that at least one of them ends up placing 1st in the Kentucky Derby 2018.

Before you go make sure that you follow our website in order to always keep up with the latest updates in the horse racing world and sports betting in general.

Author photo

Adam

Adam is long time Manchester United fan but admits that he has a few international favourite teams which he looks forward to watching and betting on for international events like the World Cup

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